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Marketing analyst Chris Zukowski reported on October 13 that Steam wishlists are experiencing inflation, resulting in a significant decline in conversion rates. By analyzing 160 titles, Zukowski observed that the percentage of wishlist additions that translate into actual game sales has dropped substantially over the last few years.
The study compared titles released between 2020 and 2022 against those from 2023 to 2025. Data indicates that median conversion rates at one, six, and twelve months post-launch have fallen by approximately half. Zukowski attributes this trend to developers becoming more adept at gathering wishlists through marketing and increased participation in events like Steam Next Fest.
On the consumer side, Valve’s UI updates have made wishlisting easier, while frequent online events expose players to more titles. This environment encourages users to add games to their lists casually, leading to a higher volume of registrations that do not necessarily result in purchases.
Despite this inflation, Zukowski maintains that wishlist counts remain a vital metric for predicting launch-period sales. His analysis found that the correlation between total wishlist numbers and sales volume remains consistent with previous years, even if the individual value of each registration has diminished.
